Ulta Got Their Mexican Passport
But, will it grant Them permanent residency?
When Ulta made their decision in 2019 to launch Canada, my first reaction was… What are they thinking?
Why head north to wage an expensive beauty war against a both Sephora and Shoppers Drug Mart? I questioned whether the potential return could justify the investment given Canada’s relatively small, but mighty spending population.
My first thought was…. why not go south and join the Queen of telenovelas? Mexico’s always camera ready for drama, and we thank them for still wearing full glam and crown to breakfast! Mexico is a 65% larger beauty market than Canada.
Ulta’s got their Mexican Passport, but will it gain them permanent residency, or will they be deported?
Fast forward to August 2025, Ulta Beauty officially opened its first location at Antara Fashion Hall in Mexico City. By January 31, 2026, Ulta had already expanded to nine stores across Mexico.
And that first location? It was an obvious opening shot at Sephora. I personally attended that particular store opening, for Stila, when Sephora entered the market back in 2011.
Now meet Grupo Axo. Ulta effectively chose the same Grupo Axo playbook Sephora used to enter Mexico 15 years earlier.
Ulta Mexico operates through a joint venture with Grupo Axo, one of Latin America’s larger multi-brand retail operators. Ulta Beauty licenses its name and operating model, while Axo provides the local retail infrastructure. Ulta earns royalties from international sales and recognizes its share of the JV’s financial results through equity-method accounting.
Ulta brought its merchandising formula to Mexico, but not a carbon copy of its U.S. assortment. At launch, Ulta introduced 35 brands to Mexico for the first time, including Isima by Shakira, Peach & Lily, Orebella and Ulta Beauty Collection, alongside Morphe, Bubble, about-face, OUAI, Half Magic and Kitsch.
Those imports sit beside Mexican and Latino-founded brands including AHAL, AloeVida, Bailando Juntos by Yuya and Sarelly Creativo Lab by Anna Sarelly.
Nine Stores In, but are they making money?
Not yet, at least from what Ulta has reported. For fiscal 2025, Ulta recorded a $3.9 million equity net loss related to its Mexico JV. Mexico’s total operating loss was not disclosed.
Ulta itself cautions that building international operations is costly and that they may not become profitable on a sustained basis. (ulta.com)
For now, Ulta Mexico is exactly what it should be at this stage: an investment, not yet a victory lap.
So, what happens when those nine stores mature, the door count grows and Ulta starts taking market share?
That’s where the math can get interesting.
Mexico is nearly 132 million people strong and one of the world’s most populous consumer markets. But big population doesn’t automatically equal big beauty wallets.
Using Euromonitor’s 2025 figures, Mexican consumers generated approximately $14.8 billion in combined beauty and personal-care retail sales: approximately $11.7 billion in mass and $3.1 billion in premium. Spread across Mexico’s entire population, that’s approximately $112 per person annually, or a little over $9 per person per month.
For comparison, Americans at an average, index at a much higher spend per capita $26 per month.
So, who owns the beauty wallet?
Mexico’s retail beauty wallet is already being fought over by Sephora, with 52 stores and the country’s #1 beauty e-commerce position; Liverpool, with 193 stores; Palacio de Hierro, with 15 luxury department stores; and Sally Beauty, with 265 locations. Then top that off with Walmart, Amazon, Mercado Libre, and a long list of grocery, pharmacy, and independent beauty chains all fighting for their own piece of the Mexican Pie.
So, can Ulta reach Conquistador status? Let’s play with the numbers.
What If Ulta Starts Taking Share? Using $14.8 billion as the working market size, every single percentage point of market share represents approximately $148 million in annual retail sales. For the purposes of this fun exercise lets scale this up to 9%, market share reached, which may sound ambitious, and it is.
Ulta estimates that it already captures approximately 9% of the U.S. beauty-products market. For future forecasting purposes let’s assume U.S comparative figures.
Ulta Beauty's Mexican Market Share & Profit Potential Based On $14.8B (US Equivalence) BPC Market Size
Retail Sales & Profit Assumptions
Ulta’s mature U.S. business produced a 12.4% operating margin in fiscal 2025, and the company’s longer-term target remains around 12%. (ulta.com)
Mexico shouldn’t automatically be expected to perform like mature Ulta U.S. stores.
So instead, I modeled three potential margin scenarios, see profit assumptions model.
But…. Ulta doesn’t get all of the profit. Ulta and Grupo Axo have not publicly disclosed their agreements and financial arrangements. So, I can’t say for sure who gets what, but I’m sure after Sephora’s successful launch that Grupo was able to make a “Muy Guapo” deal.
So, is Mexico worth all the work?
If Mexico eventually captures even 3%–5% of the country’s beauty market, achieves mature store economics in the high-single-digit margin range then the market could evolve from a small international experiment into a $400–$750 million retail business generating tens of millions of dollars annually for Ulta.
Now store count: Let’s assume Ulta Mexico’s online sales penetration matches the Mexican market at approximately 15%, and Ulta captures 9% of Mexico’s $14.8 billion beauty market, or roughly $1.33 billion in annual retail sales. This scale would require approximately 140–145 stores, assuming an aggressive and mature physical-store productivity of roughly $8 million per door annually.
For comparison, Ulta U.S. generated $12.4 billion in fiscal 2025 sales across 1,505 U.S. stores. If we assume that an unreported estimate/average of 25% of U.S. sales are generated online, that will put estimated brick-and-mortar productivity at roughly $6.2 million per U.S. door annually. Since Mexico indexes below the US in online penetration, that puts more pressure on store sales.
Using that more conservative U.S. benchmark of $6.2 million per U.S. door, Ulta Mexico could ultimately require closer to 180 stores (3X+ Sephora) to reach $1.33 billion in total sales, assuming approximately 15% of Mexican sales are generated online.
So, for the brands launching Ulta MX, don’t expect to become a billionaire here, but do expect an awesome customer and a wonderful opportunity to expand your reach. Those brand who buy into the market will get served their slice of pie.
What Are You Waiting For?
Get in the
BOXXXOXOXO!
A Big Box Beauty exclusive article written by Dominick Briguglio, CCO of Big Box Beauty published on 9/10/2026
Ulta’s mature U.S. business produced a 12.4% operating margin in fiscal 2025, and the company’s longer-term target remains around 12%. (ulta.com)
Mexico shouldn’t automatically be expected to perform like mature Ulta U.S. stores.
So instead, I modeled three potential margin scenarios, see profit assumptions model.
But…. Ulta doesn’t get all of the profit. Ulta and Grupo Axo have not publicly disclosed their agreements and financial arrangements. So, I can’t say for sure who gets what, but I’m sure after Sephora’s successful launch that Grupo was able to make a “Muy Guapo” deal.
So, is Mexico worth all the work?
If Mexico eventually captures even 3%–5% of the country’s beauty market, achieves mature store economics in the high-single-digit margin range then the market could evolve from a small international experiment into a $400–$750 million retail business generating tens of millions of dollars annually for Ulta.
Now store count: Let’s assume Ulta Mexico’s online sales penetration matches the Mexican market at approximately 15%, and Ulta captures 9% of Mexico’s $14.8 billion beauty market, or roughly $1.33 billion in annual retail sales. This scale would require approximately 140–145 stores, assuming an aggressive and mature physical-store productivity of roughly $8 million per door annually.
For comparison, Ulta U.S. generated $12.4 billion in fiscal 2025 sales across 1,505 U.S. stores. If we assume that an unreported estimate/average of 25% of U.S. sales are generated online, that will put estimated brick-and-mortar productivity at roughly $6.2 million per U.S. door annually. Since Mexico indexes below the US in online penetration, that puts more pressure on store sales.
Using that more conservative U.S. benchmark of $6.2 million per U.S. door, Ulta Mexico could ultimately require closer to 180 stores (3X+ Sephora) to reach $1.33 billion in total sales, assuming approximately 15% of Mexican sales are generated online.
So, for the brands launching Ulta MX, don’t expect to become a billionaire here, but do expect an awesome customer and a wonderful opportunity to expand your reach. Those brand who buy into the market will get served their slice of pie.
Retail Sales & Profit Assumptions
What Are You Waiting For?
Get in the
BOXXXOXOXO!
A Big Box Beauty exclusive article written by Dominick Briguglio, CCO of Big Box Beauty published on 9/10/2026
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